A swift recovery in oil demand in India is not only helping the stability of the global market, it is giving huge fiscal headroom to the government in terms of additional excise duty.
The wholesale price-based inflation shot up to an all-time high of 10.49 per cent in April, on rising prices of crude oil and manufactured items. Also, a low base of April last year contributed to the spike in inflation in April 2021. The WPI inflation was 7.39 per cent in March 2021, and (-) 1.57 per cent in April 2020. This is the fourth straight month of uptick seen in the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation.
The festival season has already begun in the west and south of India with Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam, respectively, and consumer companies are witnessing a pick-up in sales compared to pre-Covid levels. Retailers, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer durables companies expect their sales to grow in double digits this festival season compared to pre-pandemic times, as there are no curbs on movement now. Adani Wilmar expects sales volume to be higher by 15-20 per cent as rural India has largely witnessed good monsoon rains, and employment has picked up in urban areas.
"Under the CO-JEET" plan, personnel of the three wings of the armed forces -- the Army, the Indian Air Force and the Navy -- have been pressed into service to help restore oxygen supply chains, set up COVID beds and provide help to the civilian administration in its fight to control the pandemic," said the Lt General, whose post of deputy chief integrated defence staff (medical) comes under the Chief of Defence Staff.
'Sectors related to foreign trade, exchange, import and travel are experiencing a slowdown, which is now reflecting in their talent demand too.'
Reliance Industries on Tuesday said it will acquire a majority stake in California-based solar energy software developer SenseHawk for $32 million (around Rs 256 crore). The acquisition of a 79.4 per cent stake in SenseHawk is part of the conglomerate's aggressive push into renewable energy to decarbonise its oil and chemical-dominated business. SenseHawk, founded in 2018, develops tools for the solar industry to help companies streamline processes and use automation. It had a turnover of $2.3 million in last financial year.
Oil and gas players' wish list includes incentivising E&P investments and reintroduction of income tax holiday for exploration and production activities, among others.
India's economy is expected to grow 7.5-8 per cent this fiscal year with exports playing a key role in the country's success story, CII president TV Narendran said on Monday. However, he said the country needs to remain prepared for any fallout of next wave of COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. "We are confident that the economy can retain a high growth trajectory this year. "So, we are very optimistic on the export front. "Exports will be a key component of India's success story going forward," Narendran said.
Reliance Industries Ltd will invest Rs 75,000 crore in rolling out 5G mobile telephony services, expanding retail network and setting up renewable energy capacity in Uttar Pradesh in the next four years, its chairman Mukesh Ambani said on Friday. Ambani also announced foray of the oil-to-telecom conglomerate into bio-energy business, converting agriculture waste into gas which can be used as fuel in industries, run automobiles or light kitchen stoves. Speaking at the Uttar Pradesh Global Investors Summit 2023 here, Ambani said his group will set up 10 GigaWatts of renewable energy capacity and roll out 5G services across the state in the next 10 months.
Imports too tumbled by 58.65 per cent to $17.12 billion in April from $41.4 billion in the same month last year, according to the data by the commerce and industry ministry.
The country's exports in December surged 37 per cent on an annual basis to $37.29 billion, the highest-ever monthly figure, government data showed on Monday.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies and India needs to be wary of "imported inflation", especially due to high oil prices, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 released on Monday. "Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies. "India's Consumer Price Index inflation stood at 5.6 per cent YoY in December 2021 which is within the targeted tolerance band," the survey report presented in the Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted.
Reliance Retail has entered the Indian fast-moving consumer goods space as it takes its private label brands, sold at its supermarkets and hypermarkets, Reliance Fresh and Reliance Smart, to general trade. The company had internally set a target of Rs 50,000 crore turnover from the FMCG business, which will fall under Reliance Retail's consumer brand division. Business Standard accessed a presentation which includes the brands it has taken to the general trade.
Imports too contracted by 28.72 per cent to $31.16 billion. Dip in exports and imports narrowed the trade deficit -- the difference between imports and exports -- in March to $9.76 billion, the lowest in the last 13 months.
'Investors should look to incrementally allocate towards equity from a medium-to-long term horizon.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday announced a Rs 11.11 lakh crore spending on infrastructure and vowed to continue reforms as she resisted resorting to populist measures in Modi government's last Budget before general elections, instead choosing to stay on the path of cutting deficit while bolstering measures for focus groups.
India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
Investors have scaled back their allocation to equities as pessimism has reached "dire" levels due to cloudy economic outlook, according to the latest Bank of America (BofA) monthly global fund manager survey that covered nearly 300 money managers with combined assets of $800 billion. The survey showed that the expectations for global growth and profits are at all-time lows and cash levels are at highest since the 9/11 attacks. Interest rate hikes by central banks, the unwinding of an easy monetary regime, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of recession have heightened market volatility since the beginning of the year.
Indian economy is poised to do better on the back of reforms undertaken by the government and is expected to clock a 6.5-7 per cent growth in the remaining part of the decade, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday. Addressing reporters here after the tabling of the Economic Survey in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Nageswaran said that by and large, inflation is likely to be "well behaved" in FY2023-24 barring headwinds. "My optimism is that in the coming decade, rest of the decade, the potential GDP growth, without taking into account export potential, because global economy is still rife with uncertainty, the growth rate would be around 6.5 to 7 per cent, rather than between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent," he said.
There is no direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on India in terms of bilateral trade but a surge in oil prices poses considerable risk to the economy, an analyst report said on Friday. International oil prices which have surged past $100 per barrel "pose risks to external stability and currency movement," a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report said. Russia has launched military operations against Ukraine, stoking fears of significant disruption in the region, including loss of life. The West is ramping up financial sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine.
The primary and immediate impact of a depreciating rupee is on the importers who will have to shell out more for the same quantity and price. However, it is a boon for the exporters as they receive more rupees in exchange for dollars. The rupee depreciation has wiped away some of the gains that would have accrued to India from international oil and fuel prices dropping to pre-Ukraine war levels.
Experts say local demand, government policies in retail and refining sector are attracting foreign players.
Clearly, Foxconn Chairman Young Liu and his team are looking to raise their game in India.
Reliance Industries (RIL's) annual report released on Sunday highlighted the company's focus on new energy solutions, with chairman and managing director (MD) Mukesh Ambani stating that the age of fossil fuels will not continue much longer. RIL has sought shareholders' approval to give Ambani another five-year term as MD till 2029 at nil salary. The recently demerged Jio Financial Services, which "will leverage the prowess of digital and retail businesses", was expected to be listed soon.
India's economy continues to be robust, but downside risks such as rising crude oil prices, adverse weather conditions, and the global banking crisis outweigh the upside potential in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current financial year (FY24), the finance ministry said on Tuesday in its Monthly Economic Review for March. "We reiterate that downside risks to our official forecast of 6.5 per cent for real GDP growth in FY24 dominate upside risks," the review said. "Opec's surprise production cut has seen oil prices rise in April, off their lows of low-seventies per barrel in March.
Those who consider the rupee as a proxy for virility have started thumping their chests and dreaming of dethroning the dollar from its coveted position, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The mission has proposed pilot projects for replacing fossil fuels and fossil fuel-based feedstocks with Green Hydrogen and its derivatives.
The amendments to the six-and-half-decade law provides that stock holding limit on commodities will only be imposed under exceptional circumstances like national calamities, famine with a surge in prices, the minister said.
Modi was honoured with the 'Order of Zayed', the UAE's highest civilian award, in 2019 as a mark of appreciation for his efforts to boost bilateral ties between the two nations.
Trade deficit marginally widened to $9.85 billion as against $9.72 billion in February 2019.
The Indian financial services space seems to be in a sweet spot as foreign investors have made a net investment of Rs 14,205 crore ($2.1 billion) in the sector in November amid strong credit growth and manageable non-performing loan portfolio. The investment comes following a net withdrawal of Rs 4,686 crore from financial services stocks in October on account of profit booking. Overall, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have made a net investment of Rs 36,238 crore in the country's equity markets in November.
Continuing its heavy selling spree for the eighth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out nearly Rs 40,000 crore from the Indian equity market in May on fears of an aggressive rate hike by US Federal Reserve that dented investor sentiments. With this, net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from equities reached at Rs 1.69 lakh crore so far in 2022, data with depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI flows will remain volatile in the emerging markets on account of rising geo-political risk, rising inflation, tightening of monetary policy by central banks, among others, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities said.
Reliance Industries Ltd, whose offering of rock-bottom tariffs shook up the telecom industry, is looking to repeat the feat in the green energy business, where its billionaire chairman Mukesh Ambani sees promise to outshine all existing growth engines in 5-7 years. Having pledged Rs 6 lakh crore on green energy, Ambani says RIL will scale up investments in this business which will start going live in the next 12 months. "Over the next 12 months our investments across the Green Energy value chain will gradually start going live, scaling up over the next couple of years," Ambani, chairman and managing director of RIL, said in the company's latest annual report.
At a time when crude oil and natural gas prices are sky-high, public sector behemoth ONGC's haphazard planning and mismanagement in developing showpiece deep-sea KG-D5 block is costing the nation over Rs 18,000 crores due to the delayed output of oil and gas, government officials said. ONGC was originally to start gas production from the Cluster-II fields in block KG-DWN-98/2 (KG-D5) in June 2019 and the first oil was to flow in March 2020. But these targets were quietly shifted to end-2021 because of deferments in awarding the fragmented work packages of the project, two officials with direct knowledge of the matter said on condition of anonymity.
After recording positive growth in September, India's exports declined 5.4 per cent to $24.82 billion in October on account of dip in shipments of petroleum products, gems and jewellery, leather, and engineering goods. Trade deficit in October narrowed to $8.78 billion as against $11.76 billion, as imports also fell 11.56 per cent to $33.6 billion during the month under review.
Since their highs in September, chemical stocks have underperformed the benchmarks and broader indices over the past month with larger players witnessing a 9-22 per cent fall during this period. Expectations of weak September quarter results amid high inventory, demand woes and weak realisations have led to the underperformance.
Consumer-focused companies have been left with few options but to increase the prices of their products as input costs mount because of various factors, including supply chain disruptions. This has been affecting monthly household budgets. Prices of scores of items -- from spices to soaps to rice -- have increased in the past year.
A depreciating rupee, which briefly hit 80 to the dollar on Tuesday, may boost India's exports but price-inelastic imports of crude oil and gold would mean limited relief on the trade deficit, which clocked a record $26.2 billion in June. Due to global risk aversion on the back of geo-political tensions and aggressive policy tightening by the Fed, the dollar has appreciated against most currencies, including the rupee. And, with other currencies depreciating, India's comparative advantage in this respect may be limited.
